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For example, in 2017, the UNSC highlighted the security risks of water stress in the Lake Chad Basin Region, affecting Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria, based on a combination of water scarcity, drought, desertification and land degradation. However, another trend stresses the need to approach the question from a broader and more holistic perspective. Sudan is caught between the competing interests of Egypt and Ethiopia. Crucially, however, despite being signed by Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, the legal status of the DoP was left (deliberately) vague. In the modern era, the US used water to blackmail Egypt. Another difficulty for Egypt is that making this argument (i.e. Construction of the 6,000-megawatt, US $5 billion Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) began . Second, the upstream riparian states must recognize and accept Egypts near total dependence on the waters of the Nile River. A general view of the Blue Nile river as it passes through the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), near Guba in Ethiopia, on December 26, 2019. Despite the controversy and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam's effect on Egypt and Sudan, it appears that the Ethiopian government will continue to move forward with filling the dam. They can also cause dispute and heartachefor example, over damage to. - Ethiopia's massive. The dispute over the GERD is part of a long-standing feud between Egypt and Sudanthe downstream stateson the one hand, and Ethiopia and the upstream riparians on the other over access to the Niles waters, which are considered a lifeline for millions of people living in Egypt and Sudan. Given these considerations, it seems that Ethiopia has all but won the dispute. Both Egypt and Ethiopia could make arguments in support of their positions. The 1959 agreement allocated all the Nile Rivers waters to Egypt and Sudan, leaving 10 billion cubic meters (b.c.m.) One question that keeps coming up is: Will Ethiopia be willing to release enough water from the reservoir to help mitigate a drought downstream? However, for the reasons given above, the Nile Waters Treaties are unlikely to be considered territorial treaties. [35] The lack of international financing for projects on the Blue Nile River has persistently been attributed to Egypt's campaign to keep control on the Nile water share. Elliot Winter is a lecturer (assistant professor) in international law at Newcastle University in the United Kingdom. These countries should return to the NBIs Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA), which was concluded in 2010, try to resolve the disagreements that caused Egypt and Sudan to decline to sign the CFA, and use it as a model for a future binding legal regime. Match. The filling regime and operational methods of GERD will affect Egypt, in particular through its impact on the operation of its Aswan High Dam (AHD) which aims at mitigating the high variability of the Nile River flow. The Government of Egypt, a country which relies heavily on the waters of the Nile, has demanded that Ethiopia cease construction on the dam as a preconditions to negotiations, sought regional support for its position, and some political leaders have discussed methods to sabotage it. Article 5 requires that watercourse states utilise an international watercourse in an equitable and reasonable manner and creates the duty to cooperate in the protection and development of the watercourse. Both citizens and governments should be made part of the solution to the water-related conflicts that now threaten peace and security in the Nile Basin. These run from rising rivalry between Egypt and Ethiopia to a festering border war between Ethiopia and neighboring Sudan. 4. The IPoE report recommended two studies to assess the environmental and socio-economic impacts of GERD and was interpreted by both the Egyptian and the Ethiopian government as a vindication of their respective positions. Such a mitigation program can make it much easier for Egyptian and Sudanese authorities to cooperate with Ethiopia and the other riparians in creating and adopting an agreement for management of the Nile. A regional framework for the management of the Nile already existsthe Nile Basin Initiative mentioned abovewhich is a partnership among the Nile riparian states that was launched in 1999. These parallel developments appear to be elements of a bigger hydro-political strategy wherein the riparian countries aim to increase their water utilisation to put facts on the ground (and underpin legal claims based on those uses) and increase their bargaining position for renegotiations of volumetric water allocations. Water Policy, 16(4), 595-608. India dispatch: Supreme Court limits DNA paternity testing in divorce proceedings, prioritizing childrens privacy rights, US dispatch: Texas case could limit access to abortion medication, Copyright infringement made federal crime. "The Blue Nile is the lifeblood of Egypt and its people and critics fear the dam could significantly reduce water flow to the country." "Climate change is such a big unknown. Cooperation among the three countries has never been more important as demand for water rises, she added, due to factors such as population growth, urbanization and industrialization. If Egyptian authorities refuse to abandon these anachronistic treatieswhich have created untenable water-use rights that benefit only itself and Sudanall parties will remain at an impasse. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is a 6000 MW hydropower project on the Blue Nile, which the Ethiopian government plans to build to fulfill the country's energy needs. In June 2020, tensions escalated when Ethiopia declared its intent to fill the dam in July without an agreement, which again led to Egypt and Sudan requesting UNSC intervention on the matter (Kandeel, 2020). In my opinion, this should be negotiable, to fill the lake over a longer period, and only when the river is sufficiently full. You can revoke your consent to the site operator at any time by unsubscribing from the newsletter. Rendering of GERDEthiopia is building one of the largest dams in the world, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), on the River Nile near the Sudan border. 1800m long and 170m high. Omar, A. Ethiopias strategy for dam construction goes far beyond developmental goals. But the Ethiopian elites show little interest in addressing such concerns, bent as they are on a nationalist revivalist project that claims an Ethiopian exceptionalism that places Addis Ababa above international law as it pursues a water-management strategy that has less to do with its development aims than with its ambitions to weaponise water in a bid for regional hegemony. As stipulated by an Agreement of 1959 (see:Nile Main Conflict), Egypt and Sudan presented for several decades a common position vis--vis other riparians regarding the utilisation and management of Nile waters. Stratfor Worldview. These are two of the largest dams in Africa. Article IV of the DoP provides that the parties shall utilize their shared water resources in their respective territories in an equitable and reasonable manner and Article III provides that the parties shall take all appropriate measures to prevent the causing of significant harm in utilizing the Blue/Main Nile. Ethiopia can make a strong case that the operation of the Dam complies with each principle. Indeed, Egypt has called the filling of the dam an existential threat, as it fears the dam will negatively impact the countrys water supplies. The Gerd is expected to generate over 5,000 megawatts of electricity, doubling the nation's . per year, that would constitute a drought, to push the three countries to adhere to their obligations in accordance with the rules of international law in order to reach a fair and balanced solution to the issue of the GERD, 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty and 1959 Agreement. Second came the 2015 Declaration of Principles (DoP) which concerned the Dam specifically (rather than the Nile more broadly). Nevertheless, Egypt must not use sympathy for its water vulnerability as a weapon to frustrate the efforts of the other riparians to secure an agreement that is balanced, fair, and equitable. However, this threatens the basin's long-term sustainability (as water use expands beyond what is environmentally feasible) and suboptimal in terms of capital allocation (as higher water use upstream may make downstream projects uneconomical (Swain, 2011). Similarly, both the final agreement between the riparian states for the allocation of the water and resources of the Nile should include a dispute resolution mechanism. Second, regarding the 1902 Anglo-Ethiopian Treaty, although Ethiopia was a party and although that instrument does deal with the flow of water on the Nile, its terms are strictly limited. The Eastern Nile Basin is of critical geopolitical importance to the Niles overall hydro-political regime. Created by. Even in 2023, there are only 46 state parties, with key actors such as the US, Canada and Brazil remaining outside the Conventions regime. Another argument Egypt might adduce concerns the DoP. There has long been a conflict over water rights among the riparian countries of the Eastern Nile Basin (Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia). This is because the VCLT allows an older treaty to be rescinded by a new one if the new one concerns the same topic (Article 59). Nevertheless, Khartoum continues to fear that the operation of the GERD could threaten the safety of Sudans own dams and make it much more difficult for the government to manage its own development projects. The CFA was a political success for the eight upstream states such as Ethiopia as it favoured those states and isolated the downstream states of Egypt and Sudan and made them appear recalcitrant. Maguid, M.A. Sima Aldardari. Already, on June 19, 2020, Egyptian authorities called upon the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to intervene after tripartite talks had failed to secure an agreement on the filling schedule for the GERD. The Ethiopian government is spending $4.7 billion to construct the 1,780-meter dam across the Blue Nile. 74 cubic metres. Political instability in Egypt played an important role as the announcement of the project coincided with the resignation of President Mubarak during the Arab Spring. Attempts to resolve the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam dispute over the past decade have reached a deadlock. Success on this endeavor will only occur under a legally binding regime that ensures mutually beneficial rights. 2011. how much does the reservoir contain? Egypt had asked the UNSC to push the three countries to adhere to their obligations in accordance with the rules of international law in order to reach a fair and balanced solution to the issue of the GERD. Egypts repeated references to the rules of international law is part of an effort to maintain its so-called natural and historical rights that were established and reaffirmed by the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty and 1959 Agreement between Egypt and Sudan, respectivelytreaties many of the other involved parties reject as anachronistic and untenable. Crucially, however, neither Egypt nor Ethiopia are parties to the Watercourses Convention and so they are not bound by its terms. Egypts main argument might be that, despite being unsatisfactory and anachronistic, the Nile Waters Treaties remain good law and are enforceable against the respective parties. In terms of putative new law, namely the Watercourses Convention and the DoP, the key principles of equitable utilisation and no significant harm seem to leave ample room to accommodate the construction of a dam for hydroelectric generation purposes. Although Khartoum initially opposed the construction of the GERD, it has since warmed up to it, citing its potential to improve prospects for domestic development. Such an understanding and appreciation of Egypts water vulnerability would help the riparians develop a water management protocol that can significantly enhance equitable and reasonable use while minimizing significant harm to downstream riparians. In response, Ethiopia threatened military force to defend the dam and protect its interests (The New Arab, 2020a). Although Egypt has persistently argued that the 1959 agreement between Egypt and Sudan is the legal framework for the allocation of the waters of the Nile, Ethiopia and other upstream riparian states reject that argument. Helping Egypts cause, during the preparation of the VCSS, the International Law Commission stated that treaties concerning water rights or navigation on rivers are commonly regarded as candidates for inclusion in the category of territorial treaties. However, it must be noted that this would represent a generous interpretation of the territorial treaty exception. It also created a counter message to Egypts powerful the Nile is Egypt narrative that is familiar around the world. (2012). The Tripartite National Council (TNC) was then established, consisting of members from each of the three countries with the aim of carrying through the IPoE's recommendations (Attia & Saleh, 2021). Under the Ethiopian constitution, the state is the proprietor of the countrys land and natural resources, which gives the government significant control over the allocation and use of land. [18] As noted above, the instrument concedes for the first time that Ethiopia has legitimate interests over the Nile. Security implications of growing water scarcity in Egypt. The Chinese-financed Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), despite a recent breakdown in talks on Africa's largest development project, risks powering up a range of downstream tensions and rivalries. According to Baradei, hydropower dams create immense turbulence in the water, where chemical reactions such as dissolved oxygen can destroy fauna and flora. Although the case has been dropped, the organisations work focused international attention on the dams potential detrimental impacts on the lakes habitat. This is an intergovernmental partnership to provide a forum for consultation and coordination for the sustainable management and development of shared water. l It is in the Benishangul-Gumuz Region of Ethiopia, about 15 km east of the border with Sudan. A Tripartite National Committee (TNC), consisting of national experts from Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, was constituted in order to determine principles of cooperation. At stake, too, is . The $4 billion hydroelectric dam . The politicisation of the Niles water and the utilisation of development projects to achieve political ends are not new phenomena. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is estimated to cost close to 5 billion US dollars, about 7% of the 2016 Ethiopian gross national product. Gebreluel, G. (2014). Perhaps the most significant project in the 2003 plan was the Chemoga-Yeda Hydroelectric Project, a series of five small dams on Blue Nile tributaries and two dams on the Genale River with a couple more envisioned for a later phase. Egypt wants control and guarantees for its share of Nile waters. The 6,000-megawatt Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, shown here in May 2016, is scheduled to begin producing electricity in 2017. What are the disadvantages of the Aswan Dam? Match facts: Egypts Ahly v South Africas Mamelodi Sundowns (CAF Champions.. 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Ethiopia has never 'consumed' significant shares of the Nile's water so far, as its previous political and economic fragility in combination with a lack of external financial support, due to persistent Egyptian opposition to projects upstream, prevented it from implementing large-scale projects.